OAK — OnChain Attack Knowledge

Worked example · 2025-12

Polymarket UFO Declassification UMA Vote-Capture Dispute — 2025-12

Loss
~$16M market (CryptoSlate). Bettors holding YES positions were paid when the UMA vote finalized YES on 2025-12-10 despite no new U.S. government UFO declassification notice being found; the only related release was AARO's posting of 2022 "unresolved" UAP imagery, which the market rules did not count.
OAK Techniques observed
OAK-T9.006.001 (DVM Vote Capture by Economically-Interested Holder — primary; the alleged mechanism is token-weighted voting overriding trader consensus; this is community allegation, not shown by vote data). OAK-T9.006 (Subjective-Oracle Resolution Manipulation — parent technique; the Polymarket/UMA oracle layer was the attack surface). OAK-T9.006.002 (Resolution-Spec Ambiguity Exploitation — secondary; the market's resolution criterion "credible official announcement" was inherently ambiguous, enabling voters to rationalise the divergent ruling).
Attribution
unattributed. No source seen identifies UMA voters, links voter wallets to YES positions, or gives vote tallies; the earlier claim of vote-log analysis showing YES-position whales is unverified.
Key teaching point
The UFO declassification market is a suspected, not confirmed, T9.006.001 case, following the Ukraine mineral deal market (March 2025, ~$7M). It resolved YES through a two-dispute UMA escalation with no evidence of a real-world declassification, and community commenters alleged whales bought near par and that token-weighted voting overrode trader consensus. No voter-position data is public in the sources seen, so vote capture is an allegation. The structural point stands: a token-weighted subjective oracle can finalize against trader consensus on a market large relative to the cost of influencing a vote, and the market's own rules decide what counts.
Corrected 2026-10-11
the market finalized YES on 2025-12-10 00:27 UTC after two disputes (not near the Dec 31 deadline); the ~$16M figure is CryptoSlate's; the UMA market-cap comparison and vote-log concentration claims were removed and voter-position vote capture is stated as unverified allegation.

Summary

A Polymarket market created 2025-04-17 asked whether the Trump administration would declassify UFO files in 2025 and reached ~$16M. Per CryptoSlate, it closed just after midnight on 2025-12-10 and went through two proposals and two disputes, escalating to a UMA tokenholder vote that finalized YES at 00:27:58 UTC on 2025-12-10, not at the December 31 deadline. No new public declassification notice was found; the only related release was AARO's posting of 2022 "unresolved" UAP imagery, which the market rules did not count as a White House order.

Community commenters alleged that whales bought near par (99–99.9 cents) before finalization and that token-weighted voting overrode trader consensus. CryptoSlate reports these claims but does not verify them: it gives no vote tallies, does not identify UMA voters, and does not link any wallet to a vote. One ~$615,000 late trade is noted but is not tied to any voter. Earlier versions of this file stated UMA vote-log concentration and a ~$95M UMA market cap comparison; neither is supported and both are removed.

Relation to the Polymarket subjective-oracle cohort: the case is a plausible T9.006.001 (vote capture) instance by outcome, but the voter-position overlap that defines the pattern is unverified, so it should be treated as a disputed-resolution case until vote data surfaces.

Timeline (UTC)

When Event OAK ref
2025-04-17 Polymarket market created on whether the Trump administration declassifies UFO files in 2025 (market creation)
2025-12-10 (just after 00:00) Market closes; two proposals and two disputes follow, escalating to UMA governance (dispute escalation)
2025-12-10 00:27:58 UMA vote finalizes YES; no new declassification notice found T9.006.001 (suspected; voter data unverified)
2025-12-10 onward CryptoSlate and community commenters allege whale vote-capture; no vote-level evidence published (market discussion)

Realised extraction

The ~$16M market resolved in favour of YES-position holders. Whether any UMA voters were among them is unverified. NO-position holders did not receive refunds (consistent with Polymarket's UMA-bound resolution policy).

Public references

Techniques demonstrated (3)