OAK — OnChain Attack Knowledge

Worked example · 2025-20

Polymarket Subjective-Oracle Resolution Manipulation Cohort — 2025–2026

OAK Techniques observed
OAK-T9.006.001, OAK-T9.006.002, OAK-T9.006.003, OAK-T9.006.004
Attribution
unattributed (aggregate cohort).
Loss
~$350M+ in disputed market volume across the four canonical cases (Ukraine mineral deal ~$12M, Zelenskyy-suit ~$237M, Iran-strike ~$5M, Van Dyke / Operation Absolute Resolve ~$91M); realised extraction bounded by attacker-position-size in each market.
Key teaching point
Prediction markets whose resolution depends on a subjective oracle (UMA DVM, Kleros, Reality.eth) expose four structurally distinct attack surfaces — vote capture by economically-interested tokenholders (T9.006.001), resolution-spec ambiguity exploitation (T9.006.002), off-chain resolution-source coercion (T9.006.003), and operational-insider trading on classified-information access (T9.006.004). Each surface is load-bearing independently; a market can be defended against three and still fall to the fourth.

Summary

Timeline

2025-03 (Ukraine mineral deal — DVM vote capture) → 2025-07 (Zelenskyy-suit — spec-ambiguity exploitation) → 2025-12 to 2026-01 (Van Dyke / Operation Absolute Resolve — operational-insider trading) → 2026-03 (Iran-strike / Fabian — off-chain resolution-source coercion). The four canonical cases span 12 months, demonstrating that the subjective-oracle resolution surface is systematically exposed, not incidentally.

Public references

  • [umadvm2025] — UMA DVM documentation and tokenomics
  • [polymarket2025mineral] — Polymarket "Ukraine mineral deal" market resolution and community dispute
  • [polymarket2025zelenskyy] — Polymarket "Zelenskyy wears suit to White House" market resolution and spec-ambiguity dispute
  • [fabian2026iran] — Emanuel Fabian / Times of Israel first-person account of off-chain coercion attempt (Iran-strike market)
  • [doj2026vandyke] — DOJ SDNY indictment + CFTC parallel civil action (Van Dyke / Operation Absolute Resolve)
  • [acdc2026polymarket] — ACDC analytics on longshot-win rates in military/defense prediction markets
  • [telaviv2026idf] — Tel Aviv District Court indictment of IDF reservist (2026-02)

Techniques demonstrated (4)